Muhammad Bilal Shahid

I am working towards my PhD at Coordinated Systems Lab in Ames, IA, where I am working under the supervision of Dr. Cody Fleming. During my PhD, I've worked on a number of interesting projects mainly related to Dynamical Systems Modeling, Time Series Forecasting, and Uncertainty Quantification. I am finishing my PhD in Mechanical Engineering with a minor in Computer Engineering next year and will be on the job market.

I am also building Seeze, a deep-tech startup focused on predictive and risk-aware space domain awareness. We develop ML-augmented uncertainty calibration tools for conjunction assessment, enabling safer and more reliable orbital decision-making for satellite operators.

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We propose modeling the error dynamics of learned time-series predictors with a Neural CDE to improve long-horizon forecasting.

A predictor–corrector mechanism that yields calibrated prediction intervals for autoregressive dynamics models.

We conducted a comprehensive study on optimal target-variable selection for training black-box models of car-following dynamics. The resulting models exhibited improved extrapolation and lower error accumulation over time.